Shifting Ice – Russia’s Increasing Reliance on the Private Sector and the PRC in the Arctic
Once recognized as a region for global cooperation, changing geopolitical dynamics and the warming climate are turning the Artic into an arena of strategic competition.
Russia will soon be the only non-NATO Artic country, and Moscow is trying to assert dominance in the region. At the same time, the self-proclaimed “near-Artic” country, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is maneuvering to establish a presence in the region. Meanwhile, NATO is quickly trying to make up ground and establish a unified approach to deterrence in the Artic. At stake in this competition are more than potential security and defense advantages, but also access to immense economic benefits, such as resource extraction and control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The demands of the war in Ukraine combined with Russia’s mounting economic and diplomatic isolation are forcing Moscow to shift resources and rely on the private sector and cooperation with the PRC to expand its foothold in the Artic.